Are all the analysts still predicting a rise in crude oil prices? Which way should you bet on Oil to go next, up or down?

 

We have scoured the financial press for reputable sources predicting a drop in oil prices. There are not many. Of course the negatives with this sort of research come in three forms of self interest.

 

Firstly, the media want to print high oil price stories. That sells papers. Writing that Analyst Abc of Company Xyz predicts a drop to $130 is not going to shift the broadsheets.

 

Secondly, some predications could be seen as self-serving prophecies such Gazprom’s repeated forecast of $250 per barrel.

 

Thirdly, it is the role of many an employee to keep their company in the headlines. At least that was one charge levelled at Argun Murti of Goldman Sachs who predicted the $200 super spike. Although it was the same energy man who predicted that crude would hit $100 per barrel. As we all know, his previous prediction was correct.

 

If that is the case then who has said what about the price?

 

$60. Fadel Ghiet, Equity Analyst Oppenheimer. “Based on Supply and Demand…Crude Oil should not be above $60 per barrel”.

 

$80. But not before summer 2009. Simon Denom of Capital Spreads suggests that if the North Sea extraction costs are less than $20 per barrel then $80 is likely.

 

$150. Simon Denom. In the short term but not just yet. “The $150 level is within a single trading days range but we may pause for breath before we take the leap. Remember the delay at the $100 level where the market continually rejected the psychological three-digit number before breaking decisively through it?”

 

$150. Ole Slorer, Analyst, Morgan Stanley. Estimate for 4 July. Note that Brent Crude Oil closed at $144.42 and Nymex US Light Crude (WTI) closed at $143.97 on 4 July. Close but no cigar.

 

$150. Nauman Barakat, Macquarie New York. Crude Oil will hit $150 per barrel sooner rather than later and that is with or without any further problems in the Middle East.

 

$200. Energy Strategist, Argun Murti, Goldman Sachs.

 

$200. A lot of energy brokers. According to the Financial Times, there were nearly 30,000 open contracts in July for Nymex December to hit $200. That is up nearly 90% since June. Up 600% since January.

 

$225. Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist, CIBC. Do not panic yet though. The CE of the Canadian Bank is only predicting $225 by 2012.

 

$250. Alexei Miller, CEO, Gazprom. He says Da to $250 per barrel by the end of 2008.

 

$300. There are some $300 per barrel Call Options being sold. However these have been widely described in the press as Lottery Tickets.

 

The current Crude Oil price with spread betting company Financial Spreads is $138.92 - $138.97 for Brent Crude September. With the crude oil market so volatile and trading a $4-5 dollar range in a single day is it best to stay out of the market or is it worth following all the, possibly self serving, predictions?

 

Note that spread betting carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all classes of investor. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risks involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

* Note that Tax Law may be different if you pay tax in a jurisdiction outside the UK, it can also change.

 



By: Robert Thomas

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